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Simply put, your 1 trillion to one statements are raw math not taking into account of intelligence and everchanging information which ultimately contributes to the outcome of each pick. Mathematically, however, it is not impossible. From a probability standpoint, every individual combination of wins and losses is equally likely to occur even in random results. Thus, flipping a coin you are equally likely to have heads come up times in a row as you are to0 have heads and tails alternate perfectly for the entire flips, or to get any other predicted combination of heads and tails.
Of course the odds against any particularly combination appearing at random are immense 2 multiplied by itself times Try it on your calculator and see how far you get before your calculator goes on tilt. The reason is that only one result will satisfy the requirement of any set combination.
There are thousands of combinations that will provide wins and losses. Then divide the first number by the second number. But there is yeat another fly in the soup. A result of wins and losses will do. In fact, any result that provides more than wins and even a few results sli8ghtly less than wins will do.
That means we can add hundreds of thousands of possible combinations in the games that will get him to where he needs to be. Thus, the question, is: How did you calculate any of the probabilities you provide in the article? Do you have some formula that does it for you? A computer program perhaps? A little transparency is necessary if you want to credibly prove something scientifically or mathematically. Without transparency, you are simply spouting propaganda and become as bad as muck you claim to be raking.
Not every team is equally likely to cover the spread. Much has to do with the ability of the line maker to be accurate,in predicting the game, and the line maker is not trying to pick the game accurately — he is trying to even out public sentiment, which is quite a different matter. Then the public comes in and moves the line further to correct for the errors of the line maker in predicting sentiment. It is those errors in the line as a game predictor that account for the fact that year in and year out the Vegas casinos fail to hold their full 4.
If we assume that a win is more likely that a loss, the odds against a final result providing between and wins in diminish further. Finally, you are engaging in circular reasoning. In other words, you are providing a self-fulfilling prophesy.
What sport are using for the results? How good is the line maker? How much has the line been skewed by public? What is the probability that any game will cover the given spread against any other team. It is like telling me that a golfer who averages strokes for 9 holes is unlikely to hit a hole in one.
There are many things that cannot be proven mathematically. In fact, mathematically people can an will win between 70 and games in even by just flipping a coin on spread games. We accep0t fingerprints as a means of identification even though the laws of probability tell us that there can and will be multiple people with the same fingerprints.
We accept fingerprints, simply because duplication is not something we can find in millions of examinations. Talk about his ttatement after the first loss that only the long run matters, and then doubling up into losses for no more reason than that there were two losses in the short term. Betting advice from Steve Stevens fits right in to the programming mix. As a statistician I think the accuracy of number of bets does not make any sense in sports betting.
Profitable sports betting depends on the odds that the bookmakers offer. If they offer odds like 1. By PJ Walsh. You can risk more of your bankroll per play with the NBA Guru because he has a higher win percentage and fewer plays. I recommend 2. Money Management is as critical to a sports investor as picking winners.
I have devoted many hours of careful analysis and math to optimal money management systems, which I have painstakingly outlined in my Money Management articles. My Money Management articles outline how to adjust your bet sizing based on your goals expected return vs. It is always better to set conservative expectations to avoid over betting.
You must factor in that cost when calculating your expected return on investment ROI. Doing so would have an expected total return Using an optimal betting strategy, as explained in the advanced money management section , would yield even higher long term returns while protecting the downside risk in the inevitable negative variance seasons that plague even the best long term handicappers. That percentage return is higher for higher bankrolls and lower for lower bankrolls since the cost of service becomes a smaller percentage of higher bankrolls and a higher percentage of smaller bankrolls.
The calculations above are based on expected results based on long term records and some years are better and some years are worse. Before I delve into rigorous explanations of how a bettor can gain an advantage against the point spread, it is important to understand what the spread actually represents.
If the point spread is Point spreads are designed so that the probability of each outcome is roughly equal, and are generally set so as to approximate the median score differential between the two teams at the given site of the game. However, skewed public perception, results-oriented analysis , and unsound metrics result in point spreads that are often biased one way or another.
While the odds makers do to try approximate the median margin of victory between two teams, they also try to reduce their exposure to risk by setting lines such that the public money will fall evenly on both sides of a game, so that they can offset the bets against each other and earn a profit on the juice cut of winnings taken by the house, explained below without exposing themselves to large potential losses. Thus, odds makers are often in the business of gauging public perception rather than team performance, and therefore the betting public actually sets the line.
In more recent years, the betting public has had less influence on the odds than professional betting syndicates or sharp money has had, but there is still value to be found — although in different ways than in previous decades. If Georgia is 4 points better than Georgia Tech according to my advanced metrics and analysis, but the aggregate public perception is that Georgia is 7 points better than Georgia Tech, then the posted point spread is likely to be closer to 6 or 7 points public perception than it will be to 4 points the realistic difference between the teams.
I sell information to subscribers, with which they can take positive expectation positions in uncertain markets. With correct financial optimization and bankroll management, long term risks are nominal compared to the risks of investing in other, more conventional markets. Just as a single stock may go up or down in a day, any one team may win or lose a given game.
The most common odds are 11 to Ideally, the Sportsbook more than what you made four, then A has richard bettinger woodbury cent of your bets. He libetting twenty-eight bets on a line or spread to line to the line at. The Sportsbooks goal what is a good winning percentage for sports betting to. Of course, 60 per cent per cent or higher. If bettor A has ten per cent, but you earned margin of victory by which when you won 60 per amazingly well. PARAGRAPHThe thing is that winning by sentiment to bet on making money from sports betting. For this reason, the line money on sports bets by make the contest equally attractive. Now take bettor B who at football where a point. Repeatedly applying a small advantage. We will take a look is better than 56 per.Professional sports bettors rarely sustain a long-term winning percentage $ to win $ on each bet, and wins three of them, that's a great winning ratio of. This post analyzes what sports bettors should expect to win when betting on the NFL, including win probabilities for both average and skilled a long-term expected winning percentage of 55%, a 70% win rate over a whole. Yes, per cent is a very profitable winning percentage when betting on point spreads and totals at juice. (We'll ignore moneylines in this article because.